Dublin Saab

Cars, politics, sports and what not from my view. (Closed Sundays and Holidays)

Monday, April 25, 2005

France to China: Take Taiwan, Please!

France* has once again stepped to the forefront of the fight for freedom. They have openly stated that they are in support of China’s new anti-succession law which allows for the invasion of Taiwan if they don’t play ball. Oh and somehow for the French this increased bellicosity from Beijing proves that the arms embargo is “Anachronistic” and needs to be ended. Did I mention China buys 33% of all Airbus aircraft? Did I?

Maybe we could get the French to like us more if we closed Beoing.

*This would be the same France that fought to get embargos against Saddam lifted all the while they where inking illegal oil deal and he was imprisoning children.


At April 27, 2005 9:19 PM, Blogger The Evil Jeremy. said...

You do realize that if China were to roll the dice and invade Taiwan before Iraq is stable enough to remove most troops, there would be absolutely nothing we could do about it, right? I would not be the least surprised if it happens.

At May 03, 2005 9:47 PM, Blogger Dublin Saab said...

With the exception of the fact that an invasion of Taiwan would be decided in the air and at sea you are correct. Taiwan's air force uses our own high-tech planes which are categorically superior to the Chinese planes, same thing with missiles. Sure China has more but that just gets you back to the unsettled (thank God) cold-war question. Then you add into that mix a couple of US carrier groups with the 7th fleet and our air power in Japan and you begin to see that 125,000 ground troops in Iraq don't mean a thing.

It is, and has been, generally thought, by those who are in a position to think on such things, that in the event of an invasion attempt of Taiwan China would have about 24hrs. That is to say they have a small window of operation with which to seize the island and present the world with a fate acompli. The reverse is if Taiwan can hold for the first day the influx of US naval and air power from Japan (which is not at all being taxed by the effort in Iraq) combined with a violent world reaction will leave them with a decision between backing down or going nuclear.

There are huge problems with both of those choices. First if they back down there’s no way to save face. Second if they go nuke who do they hit? Taipei? What’s the point of invading if you’re going to irradiate the place? San Francisco? Well then history books will remember that you never had a cowardly bone in your body, right up until they all got vaporized.

So anyway, regardless of our ground troop commitments in Iraq, China still has quite an uphill battle to take Taiwan. But let’s say they do. What then? They are the pariah of the world, replacing even the US. Other Asian countries would be clamoring to allow us access to their land for bases and protection. The Japanese would go nuclear. There would be massive embargoes. Here in the US it wouldn’t take much for Wal-Mart to be forced to get their cheap crap from India and other places as a show of solidarity with the oppressed people of Taiwan, and much more. The resulting economic downturn could be the spark that ignites a civil upheaval resulting in the overthrow of the communist party itself. The fact is that China would lose in the long run no matter the outcome of the invasion.

But here’s the thing that makes this all moot, to a degree. China needs a free Taiwan that is nominally not a sovereign nation in just the same manner the religious right needs Roe v. Wade or the angry left needs Bush. It gives them a boogey-man with which to rally their people with. Please ignore the problems with our ideology and methods, nothing to see here, but look over there! See the boogey-man? You better stick with me, I’ll keep you safe. The Chinese commie pinko bastards know their system is built on a house of cards and I have faith that their own personal desire for comfort and life will keep them from making disastrous choices.

At May 04, 2005 3:43 AM, Blogger The Evil Jeremy. said...

Damn. Good answer.


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